Leafs embarrass Seth Jones with recent stat

Published January 14, 2024 at 8:18 PM
The Toronto Maple Leafs are Stanley Cup contenders this season with their current lineup.

Brad Treliving spends to the hilt and deals assets and picks like they're going out of style, so they're competitive in all scenarios.


On the other hand, the Chicago Blackhawks are in a rebuilding phase and aren't yet ready to win.

This is no secret that the team performs poorly in 5v5 when Seth Jones is on the ice.

What are/is Expected Goals?
Expected goals (xG) is a model-based metric used to isolate the evaluation of play-driving and chance-creation/suppression ability from things a player cannot control such as bounces, quality of goaltender, etc. The models make use of the public data tracked by the NHL. The NHL tracks every unblocked shot attempt (Fenwick) and collects over 100 pieces of information per unblocked shot attempt (shooter, location on ice, type of shot, etc.). Analytics nerds leverage this historical data to train the data-driven expected goals models.

The models are applied to new shot attempt data to calculate the «probability of goal» for those shot attempts. For example, a one-timer from the slot might have an expected goals value of 0.25, because that type of high-danger opportunity results in a goal 25% of the time. Common jargon is, «that scoring chance was worth 0.25 expected goals.» (Note: I made up the number for that example, not every slot shot is worth 0.25 expected goals.)

However, they should be ashamed of this stat since the team at 5v5 with Jones on ice has an xG% of 40.76 percent.

When short-handed, Morgan Rielly and the Toronto Maple Leafs are close to the Blackhawks at 39.32%.

Upon the return of Seth Jones from injury, head coach Luke Richardson will have to re-evaluate the team and figure out the weak points and how to improve such a crucial statistic.

As Seen On: insidetherink.com
January 14   |   207 answers
Leafs embarrass Seth Jones with recent stat

Do you think this 5v5 statistic is embarrassing for Seth Jones and the Blackhawks?

Yes15675.4 %
No5124.6 %
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